Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
